{"id":24295,"date":"2017-10-06T22:55:49","date_gmt":"2017-10-06T19:55:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/?p=24295"},"modified":"2018-05-09T18:32:02","modified_gmt":"2018-05-09T15:32:02","slug":"referandum-bitti-barzani-ne-yapabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/referandum-bitti-barzani-ne-yapabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"REFERANDUM B\u0130TT\u0130, BARZAN\u0130 NE YAPA(B\u0130L\u0130)R"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Cingoz.jpg?w=640\" \/>\u0130smail C\u0130NG\u00d6Z<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00dc\u00e7 haftad\u0131r Irak K\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi (IKYB) di\u011fer bir tabirle Mesut Barzani idaresindeki Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netiminin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu yaz\u0131yoruz. Hafta i\u00e7erisinde b\u00f6lgesel geli\u015fmeler g\u00fcndemin ana ekseninde olmas\u0131 bizi yine ayn\u0131 konuya y\u00f6neltti. \u015eimdi ne olacak?<\/p>\n<p>Irak K\u00fcrtleri 1. K\u00f6rfez Sava\u015f\u0131 (1990-1991) ile fiilen elde ettikleri otonomiyi, Irak\u2019\u0131n Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri (ABD) taraf\u0131ndan i\u015fgali (2003) ile de Anayasal olarak hukuki zemine oturtmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131lar. 2010\u2019da Ortado\u011fu\u2019yu etkisi alt\u0131na alan Arap Bahar\u0131 ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan DEA\u015e\/I\u015e\u0130D ile m\u00fccadele ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda elde etti\u011fi f\u0131rsatlar ile art\u0131k ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k zaman\u0131 geldi\u011fine inanan Barzani 25 Eyl\u00fcl 2017 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201c<em>Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k Referandumu<\/em>\u201d oylamas\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran, Suriye ve Irak Merkezi H\u00fck\u00fcmeti (B\u00f6lge \u00dclkeleri) ile zahiren de olsa Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn uyar\u0131lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen yap\u0131lan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu %93,29 EVET olarak a\u00e7\u0131klayan Barzani hen\u00fcz ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k ilan etmedi, edemedi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00f6rt taraf\u0131 ablukada oldu\u011fu halde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir K\u00fcrdistan\u2019\u0131n ya\u015fama \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Fakat Merkezi H\u00fck\u00fcmete ve b\u00f6lgedeki di\u011fer K\u00fcrt gruplara kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli psikolojik kazan\u0131mlar elde etmi\u015ftir. Esas\u0131nda elde etti\u011fini zannetmektedir desek daha do\u011fru olacakt\u0131r. Zira Barzani, bu b\u00f6lge \u00fczerinde hesab\u0131 olan g\u00fc\u00e7lerin elinde kullan\u0131lmaya haz\u0131r halde tutulacak ve \u201c<em>Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k ilan etmek tehdidi ad\u0131 alt\u0131nda<\/em>\u201d her f\u0131rsatta ortaya s\u00fcr\u00fclecektir. En iyi kullan\u0131m alan\u0131 da \u015f\u00fcphesiz <em>B\u00fcy\u00fck Ortado\u011fu Plan\u0131<\/em> (BOP) kapsam\u0131nda olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Genel manada bilindi\u011fi \u00fczere; \u201cKuzey Afrika\u2019n\u0131n Akdeniz s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131ndan b\u00fct\u00fcn Ortado\u011fu ile birlikte Hindistan\u2019\u0131n bat\u0131s\u0131na kadar \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu M\u00fcsl\u00fcman n\u00fcfusu bar\u0131nd\u0131ran geni\u015f bir co\u011frafi alanda yer alan \u00fclkelerin; siyasi, sosyal, ekonomik, g\u00fcvenlik, hukuki, e\u011fitim ve bilgi boyutlaryla de\u011fi\u015fim ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm hedefleri ile ABD\u2019nin So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u201c<em>Yeni Amerikan Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131<\/em>\u201d adl\u0131 bir projedir BOP[1]\u201d. Ve ana hedeflerinin \u201cOrtado\u011fu petrolleri, do\u011falgazlar\u0131 ve su havzalar\u0131n\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131nda olacak \u015fekilde\u201d \u00fclkelerin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015ftirilece\u011fi ve gerekirse uydu yeni yeni devletler kurulabilece\u011fini art\u0131k bilmeyen yoktur.<\/p><div id=\"bghab-160332776\" class=\"bghab-icerik-icine bghab-entity-placement\"><script async src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6203283170189293\" crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6203283170189293\" \ndata-ad-slot=\"7303146466\" \ndata-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\ndata-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\n<script> \n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); \n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>Barzani\u2019yi kullanan g\u00fc\u00e7lerin BOP kapsam\u0131nda \u201c<em>Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z K\u00fcrdistan<\/em>\u201d ile s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015ftirilme ayaklar\u0131ndan birisinin hayata ge\u00e7irilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131[2] beklenmektedir. Fakat bu olu\u015fuma b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin izin vermeyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Bu izin vermemenin \u201c<em>Gerekirse sava\u015f\u0131r\u0131z<\/em>\u201d boyutunda olaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen askeri tatbikatlarla da g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Barzani K\u00fcrt devletinin Irak\u2019\u0131n kuzeyi ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayaca\u011f\u0131, ilk f\u0131rsatta Akdeniz\u2019e, Karadeniz\u2019e ve Kafkaslar b\u00f6lgelerine geni\u015flemek i\u00e7in hamleler yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri taraf\u0131ndan gayet iyi bilinmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Barzani\u2019nin harekete ge\u00e7irilmesi halinde b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin direnecek olmas\u0131, etnik milliyet\u00e7i tabanl\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015f\u0131 do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya idrak etmektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Ortado\u011fu\u2019da b\u00f6lgesel bir sava\u015f\u0131n kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 \u201c<em>\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131<\/em>\u201d n\u0131 do\u011furacakt\u0131r. Bunu bilen b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin tepkisini g\u00f6ren Barzani\u2019nin arkas\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7ler, daha uysal hareket etmesini sal\u0131k vermek duruma ge\u00e7ecekledir. Ayr\u0131ca b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri ile birlikte Rusya ve \u00c7in\u2019in deste\u011fi de al\u0131nmadan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k ilan edilemeyece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>O halde do\u011frudan sava\u015f yerine \u201c<em>Ad\u0131m ad\u0131m uzla\u015f\u0131 ve zamanla kurumsalla\u015farak ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde etme<\/em>\u201d yolunun tercih edilmesi cihetine gidilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirilmektedir. Kurumsalla\u015fmaya da Kerk\u00fck d\u00e2hil hukuki stat\u00fcs\u00fc tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerden ba\u015flan\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Referandum sand\u0131\u011f\u0131na gitmeyen T\u00fcrkler ve Araplar\u0131n zamanla entegrasyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanarak, zaten de\u011fi\u015ftirilmi\u015f demografik yap\u0131n\u0131n birbiri ile kayna\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131lacak olursa hali haz\u0131rda devam eden hukuki sorunun da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilece\u011fi elbette hesaplar aras\u0131nd\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri taraf\u0131ndan her ne kadar ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k karar\u0131na sert tepki g\u00f6sterilece\u011fi ortaya konuluyor olsa da sert ambargolar \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hen\u00fcz devreye konulmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile petrol \u00fcretimine devam edecek olan Barzani uluslararas\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 ile elde edece\u011fi gelirin Merkezi H\u00fck\u00fcmet ile payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 da bir \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6zmenin yollar\u0131n\u0131 bulmay\u0131 deneyecek ve kuvvetle muhtemeldir ki ba\u015faracakt\u0131r. Bu ba\u015far\u0131da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin tavr\u0131 en \u00f6nemli belirleyici hususlardan biri olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin ortak ve kararl\u0131 hareketi taraflar\u0131n tutumunu etkileyecektir. Rusya Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Putin\u2019in T\u00fcrkiye ziyareti, T\u00fcrkiye Genel Kurmay Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran ziyareti bu kapsamda \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fmelerdir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye veya \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bir Irak operasyonu olacaksa ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmak i\u00e7in birlikte hareket etmekten ba\u015fka \u00e7\u0131kar yollar\u0131 yok gibidir.<\/p><div id=\"bghab-1717620647\" class=\"bghab-icerik-icine-10-paragraf bghab-entity-placement\"><script async src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6203283170189293\" crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6203283170189293\" \ndata-ad-slot=\"7303146466\" \ndata-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\ndata-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\n<script> \n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); \n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>Esas\u0131nda ABD ve Avrupa merkezli Bat\u0131 ile Rusya\u2019n\u0131n esas meselesinin bir K\u00fcrt devleti olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, meselenin Kerk\u00fck ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere b\u00f6lgenin yeralt\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n kimin taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilece\u011fi \u00f6zelinde oldu\u011fu da art\u0131k bilmeyen kalmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130srail\u2019in de \u201cKukla bir K\u00fcrt devleti ile u\u011fra\u015facak b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin kendisini rahat b\u0131rakacaklar\u0131\u201d beklentileri bilinmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda Barzani\u2019nin konumu, yeri ve \u00f6nemi de \u201c<em>Kullan at<\/em>\u201d kabilinde olacakt\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin yeni bir vek\u00e2let sava\u015f\u0131 durumunda en fazla zarar\u0131n yine kendilerine olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 Suriye ve Esad \u00f6rne\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere bilmesi gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu arada Kerk\u00fck\u2019te Irak T\u00fcrkmen Cephesi b\u00fcrosuna silahl\u0131 ve bombal\u0131 sald\u0131r\u0131lar yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131[3]<sup>3<\/sup> haberleri gelmektedir. Sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 IKYB gruplar\u0131n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmektedir. Fakat Ortado\u011fu\u2019da \u0131srarla \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 isteyen g\u00fc\u00e7lerin provakatif eylemler yap\u0131yor olabilece\u011fi ihtimali de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmeli ve itidalli olunmal\u0131d\u0131r. Zira T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Kerk\u00fck T\u00fcrklerine kar\u015f\u0131 duygusal hassasiyetleri \u00f6zellikle ka\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor olabilir. Fakat e\u011fer Barzani gruplar\u0131n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tespit edilmesi halinde; T\u00fcrkiye ve T\u00fcrk D\u00fcnyas\u0131 kamuoyunda (uluslararas\u0131 hukuk kapsam\u0131nda) gerekli ihtarlar\u0131n en yetkili makamlar taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>* 04.10.2017 tarihinde Ticari Hayat Gazetesi\u2019nde yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>** \u0130smail Cing\u00f6z; Siyaset Bilimi ve Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkiler Uzman\u0131\/M.Sc. \u2013 BULT\u00dcRK Derne\u011fi Ankara Temsilcisi.<\/p><div id=\"bghab-2166571425\" class=\"bghab-icerik-icine-15-paragraf bghab-entity-placement\"><script async src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6203283170189293\" crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6203283170189293\" \ndata-ad-slot=\"7303146466\" \ndata-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\ndata-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\n<script> \n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); \n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>[1] Ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bilgi i\u00e7in bknz: Hamit \u00c7EL\u0130K, \u201c<strong><em>Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ABD Politikalar\u0131 ve B\u00fcy\u00fck Ortado\u011fu Projesi\u201d<\/em><\/strong>, T.C Ufuk \u00dcniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc, Uluslararas\u0131 \u0130li\u015fkiler Ana Bilim Dal\u0131, Y\u00fcksek Lisans Tezi, 2014.<\/p>\n<p>[2] Mehmet Seyfettin EROL, \u201c<strong><em>25 Eyl\u00fcl ve Sonras\u0131 Nas\u0131l Bir Irak, Nas\u0131l Bir Ortado\u011fu?<\/em><\/strong>\u201d, ANKASAM, 26.09.2017.<\/p>\n<p>[3] <strong><em><sup>\u201c<\/sup>Kerk\u00fck&#8217;te Irak T\u00fcrkmen Cephesi B\u00fcrosuna Sald\u0131r\u0131<\/em><\/strong>\u201d, Haber T\u00fcrk, 02.10.2017, (Eri\u015fim), http:\/\/www.haberturk.com\/kerkuk-te-irak-turkmen-cephesi-burosuna-saldiri-1657203<\/p>\n<div id=\"bghab-2852635701\" class=\"bghab-yazi-altinda bghab-entity-placement\"><div class=\"bghab-adlabel\">Reklamlar<\/div><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- bghaber-yaz\u0131-sonu -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6203283170189293\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"4222328180\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div><br style=\"clear: both; display: block; float: none;\"\/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130smail C\u0130NG\u00d6Z \u00dc\u00e7 haftad\u0131r Irak K\u00fcrdistan Yurtseverler Birli\u011fi (IKYB) di\u011fer bir tabirle Mesut Barzani idaresindeki Irak K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesel Y\u00f6netiminin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumunu yaz\u0131yoruz. Hafta i\u00e7erisinde b\u00f6lgesel<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":22292,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-yorum"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Cingoz.jpg?fit=410%2C436&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pc2PfJ-6jR","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24295","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24295\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22292"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}