{"id":20976,"date":"2016-10-10T00:53:05","date_gmt":"2016-10-09T21:53:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/?p=20976"},"modified":"2016-10-10T00:53:05","modified_gmt":"2016-10-09T21:53:05","slug":"avrupa-birligi-dagilmak-uzere","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/avrupa-birligi-dagilmak-uzere\/","title":{"rendered":"Avrupa Birli\u011fi Da\u011f\u0131lmak \u00dczere"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Avrupa Birli\u011fi Da\u011f\u0131lmak \u00dczeredir. Korunmas\u0131 bir ihtimal.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/almanya.jpg?w=640\" alt=\"almanya\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Almanya eski ba\u015fbakan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 ve\u00a0 D\u0131\u015f \u0130\u015fleri Bakan\u0131, bilinen siyaset adam\u0131 Yosch\u015fka Fischer&#8217;in \u00f6zel siyasi analizi.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Avrupa Birli\u011fi \u00fclkeleri bir\u00e7ok se\u00e7im e\u015fi\u011findedir.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu sene ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7eken Bat\u0131 demokrasilerinde al\u0131nacak olan yeni kararlar son 10-20 y\u0131ldan beri tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z d\u00fcnyam\u0131z\u0131 k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek nitelikte olacakt\u0131r. Asl\u0131nda bu kararlardan baz\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131k al\u0131nd\u0131. \u00a0N\u00fcfusun % 62\u2019si Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ni terk etmek i\u00e7in oy veren, i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u0131l\u0131n Haziran ay\u0131nda, Britanya\u2019da yap\u0131lan halk oylamas\u0131 (referandum) bu y\u00f6nde parlak bir \u00f6rnek oldu. \u00d6te yandan Birle\u015fik Amerika\u2019da Donald Trump ve Fransa\u2019da Martin le Pen \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki se\u00e7imleri kazanabilir. Birka\u00e7 y\u0131l \u00f6nce b\u00f6yle bir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcde bulunmak olanaks\u0131zd\u0131.\u00a0 Art\u0131k b\u00f6yle bir senaryonun g\u00f6r\u00fclebildi\u011fini itiraf etmeliyiz.<\/p>\n<p>Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tektonik levhalar\u0131nda (dip dalgas\u0131) hareketlenme ba\u015flad\u0131 ve muhtemel sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 hisseden insanlar \u00e7ok yava\u015f da olsa art\u0131k tepki g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019deki halk oylamas\u0131ndan sonra durum de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p><div id=\"bghab-3454629170\" class=\"bghab-icerik-icine bghab-entity-placement\"><script async src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6203283170189293\" crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6203283170189293\" \ndata-ad-slot=\"7303146466\" \ndata-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\ndata-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\n<script> \n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); \n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u0130ngilizlerin karar\u0131, b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fmeye (integration), i\u015fbirli\u011fi ve ortak pazara ve ayn\u0131 adalet kurallar\u0131n\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131na dayanan Avrupa bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131 d\u00fczenine kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nd\u0131. \u0130\u00e7e bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, AB \u00fclkelerinin hi\u00e7 istisnas\u0131z hepsinde milliyet\u00e7ilik g\u00fc\u00e7 toplad\u0131. D\u0131\u015f d\u00fcnyada Rusya dev g\u00fc\u00e7 rol\u00fc \u00fcstlendi ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019ne se\u00e7enek olarak, Do\u011fu Avrupa \u00fczerinde Rus h\u00e2kimiyeti elde etmek i\u00e7in bask\u0131 yaparken, \u201cAvrupa birli\u011fi\u201d den kula\u011fa ho\u015f gelece bir s\u00f6z i\u015fitmek istiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu iki g\u00fcc\u00fcn ikisi de Avrupa bar\u0131\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in tehlike olu\u015fturuyor. Geleneksel olarak istikrar\u0131n garantisi olan \u0130ngiltere olmadan, AB bloku zay\u0131f d\u00fc\u015fecektir. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, \u0130ngiltere Bat\u0131-Avrupa b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fmesinin motorudur. \u00d6yle ki Avrupa birli\u011finin g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fczle\u015fmesi onu Do\u011fuya bakmaya itebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Amerikal\u0131lar D. Trump\u2019u Ba\u015fkan se\u00e7ti\u011finde bu senaryo daha da \u015feffaf olacakt\u0131r. Cumhuriyet\u00e7i Trump Rus Ba\u015fkan Vladimir Putin\u2019i a\u00e7\u0131ktan a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa destekliyor ve Avrupa ve Trans-Atlantik ba\u011flant\u0131lar\u0131 hesab\u0131na olmak \u00fczere, bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olan Rusya siyasetine ayak uydurmay\u0131 deneyebilir. B\u00f6yle bir an \u2013 Yalta 2,0 tipi bir durum, Avrupa\u2019da anti-Amerikanc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fckleyece\u011fi gibi Bat\u0131 i\u00e7in ceo-politik sonu\u00e7lar da do\u011furacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Martin le Pen\u2019in \u00fclkesinde yeni Ba\u015fkan olarak se\u00e7ilece\u011fi Fransa\u2019da durum benzerdir. Le Pen\u2019in se\u00e7ilmesi Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin sonu olur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc AB\u2019nin temel devletleri Fransa ile Almanya\u2019d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya ile Birle\u015fik Amerika yeni bi\u00e7im tecrit olmay\u0131 se\u00e7er ve milliyet\u00e7ilik lehinde olmak \u00fczere Fransa da AB\u2019den ayr\u0131l\u0131rsa, Bat\u0131 d\u00fcnyas\u0131 tan\u0131nmayacak kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ya\u015fayacakt\u0131r. Bundan sonra istikrar\u0131n kalesi olmaktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p b\u00fcy\u00fck bir anar\u015fi merkezine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fecektir.<\/p><div id=\"bghab-784534776\" class=\"bghab-icerik-icine-10-paragraf bghab-entity-placement\"><script async src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6203283170189293\" crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6203283170189293\" \ndata-ad-slot=\"7303146466\" \ndata-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\ndata-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\n<script> \n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); \n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>Bunlar\u0131 okuyanlar, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisine sahip olan Almanya\u2019y\u0131 g\u00f6rmek isteyebilir. Avrupa Birli\u011fi da\u011f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik ve siyasi fatura Almanya\u2019ya esilecek olsa da, hi\u00e7bir kimse devletin \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilmesini beklememelidir.<\/p>\n<p>Ceo-politik alanda, Almanya \u00f6rs ve \u00e7eki\u00e7 aras\u0131nda bulunacakt\u0131r. Fransa biraz bir az Bat\u0131, bir az Atlantik ve biraz da Ak Deniz \u00fclkesiyken, Almanya Bat\u0131 ile Do\u011fu aras\u0131nda gidip gelmektedir. \u201cBat\u0131 m\u0131 Do\u011fu mu\u201d sorunu 1945\u2019e dar da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmemi\u015fti. 1949\u2019da Federal Almanya\u2019n\u0131n kurulmas\u0131yla, Almanya kansleri Konrad Adenauer Bat\u0131y\u0131 se\u00e7mi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>Adenauer Almanya trajedisini ba\u015ftanba\u015fa ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f biriydi: \u0130ki D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131, Weimar Cumhuriyetinin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve gen\u00e7 Federal Cumhuriyetin Bat\u0131 ile olan ba\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n birle\u015fmesinden dah \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendirdi. O Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6rs ve \u00e7eki\u00e7 aras\u0131nda olma durumundan kurtulmas\u0131, Bat\u0131 g\u00fcvenli\u011fine ve kurumlar\u0131na ba\u011flanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Bat\u0131ya y\u00f6nelebilmesi i\u00e7in, Fransa ile Almanya aras\u0131ndaki sava\u015f sonras\u0131 bar\u0131\u015fma ve Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde Avrupal\u0131lar\u0131n birle\u015fmesi zorunlu olmu\u015ftu. Almanya\u2019da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l yap\u0131lacak olan genel se\u00e7imlerde Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ceo-politik y\u00f6nelimi olacakt\u0131r. A\u00e7\u0131k kap\u0131lar siyasetinden \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc, H\u0131ristiyan Demokrat Birlik (CDU) partisi bu siyasete s\u0131rt \u00e7evirirse, s\u0131\u011f\u0131nmac\u0131 bunal\u0131m\u0131ndan dolay\u0131, \u201cAlmanya i\u00e7in Alternatif\u201d \/AfD\/ saflar\u0131n kayan se\u00e7menleri toplamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Fakat CDU partisinin \u201cAlmanya i\u00e7in Alternatif\u201d partisiyle i\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6ren her ad\u0131m\u0131 ciddi sorunlarla y\u00fczle\u015fecektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u201cAfD\u201d hareketi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f\u0131 temsil etti\u011fi gibi, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n merkezci siyasete d\u00f6nmesinde ve Rusya ile ili\u015fkilerin geli\u015ftirilmesinde direniyor. Bu iki g\u00fc\u00e7 aras\u0131nda i\u015fbirli\u011fi tesis edilmesi ise Konrad Adenauer\u2019in vasiyetine ihanet anlam\u0131ndad\u0131r. Bu arada Almanya\u2019da ba\u015fka bir tehlike daha var. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fclkedeki \u201cDie Lince\u201d (sol g\u00fc\u00e7ler) de Rusya ile ili\u015fkilerin geli\u015ftirilmesinden yan siyaset izliyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6n\u00fcl ister ki, Almanya bu trajik ve ufuksuz gelece\u011fi ya\u015famas\u0131n ve Merkel 2017\u2019den sonra da iktidarda kalmaya devam etsin. Almanya, Avrupa ve Bat\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bun ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p><div id=\"bghab-3936501520\" class=\"bghab-icerik-icine-15-paragraf bghab-entity-placement\"><script async src=\"\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-6203283170189293\" crossorigin=\"anonymous\"><\/script><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6203283170189293\" \ndata-ad-slot=\"7303146466\" \ndata-ad-layout=\"in-article\"\ndata-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\n<script> \n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); \n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"bghab-163934569\" class=\"bghab-yazi-altinda bghab-entity-placement\"><div class=\"bghab-adlabel\">Reklamlar<\/div><script async src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<!-- bghaber-yaz\u0131-sonu -->\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-6203283170189293\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"4222328180\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"auto\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div><br style=\"clear: both; display: block; float: none;\"\/>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa Birli\u011fi Da\u011f\u0131lmak \u00dczeredir. Korunmas\u0131 bir ihtimal. Almanya eski ba\u015fbakan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 ve\u00a0 D\u0131\u015f \u0130\u015fleri Bakan\u0131, bilinen siyaset adam\u0131 Yosch\u015fka Fischer&#8217;in \u00f6zel siyasi analizi. Avrupa Birli\u011fi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":20977,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kultur-sanat"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/almanya.jpg?fit=648%2C428&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/pc2PfJ-5sk","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20976","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20976"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20976\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20976"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20976"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bghaber.org\/bghaber\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20976"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}